When I was asked to speak at TEDx in Toronto in November, I was asked to talk about what I am passionate about. I have learned so much about the fascinating power of conscious intenion as a result of my years of study, that I have always felt that this was something that needed to be shared with the rest of the world. I want to share this because I think you should know about it. I have NOTHING to sell by the way.

The demonstration video:

and resulting questionnaire:

:
http://alturl.com/6c3qv

Were both sent out to my blog subscribers and FaceBook friends. So far, according to the questionnaire, it was been fairly well recieved:

Please rate your level of interest:
43% = "I liked it"
21% = "it was ok"
13% = "it blew me away!"
3% = "snore! boring."

but some of the comments are making me realize that I am not providing enough technical science to back up my claims. When I am accused of being "unscientific" about my approach, it really irks me. Anyone who knows me, knows how anally technical I can be. My time limit on the TED presentation is 18 minutes. I can't launch into all of the controls, and statistical analyasis that I do, because I don't have time, and like I said, I would end up alienating 80% of my audience.

I'm not so sure I want to do this 18 minute presentation now. I don't think there is a middle ground without turning it into a 2 hour seminar / workshop, or - even better, a book.

For those members of my blog audience who need a little more, I totally understand. I would be exactly the same. I have prepared the following (below) outlining the details on the protocol that I use, the controls that are in place to prevent information leakage, and the statistical evidence that there is indeed something going on here.

So for those of you interested, that information is below. And for those who have not yet viewed the demo video, I invite you to please watch it, and then read the details below. If you have questions, or comments or just want to discuss, email me adventuresofgreg@gmail.com

---------------
More information about the Princeton Pear program:
http://www.princeton.edu/~pear/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princeton_Engineering_Anomalies_Research_Lab

Detailed protocol:

1. Selection of a market to trade, trade entry date & time and trade exit date & time

The selection of a futures market that will be the subject of the prediction is done randomly by a computer application which I wrote to manage this entire process. It uses the pseudo random generator to select one futures market from a basket of various futures contracts such as: Gold, Oil, S&P 500, 10 year T bills, Japanese Yen, Wheat, Canadian Dollar, and Swiss Franc. The application selects the contract month with the highest average trading volume from the most recent trading day (active contract), and calculates the number of contracts to trade based on recent volatility to equalize risk/reward between all markets in the basket. Almost all trades are entered at the market open, and exited on the same day at the market close. Each market and each exchange has it's own open and close time, and these exact times are used to place the entry and exit orders.

In most cases, the actual identity of the futures market chosen by my computer program is kept hidden from me. There have been times where I needed to preview the market due to ensuring that the current contract month selected was still a valid month for the trading date, and other trading function concerns. However, knowledge of the market being traded isn't required as a control in stopping any information leakage, as the trade direction (buy or sell), is also kept hidden from me.

A future date is chosen by myself. This date is any date in the near future that is an actual trading date (ie: the exchange is open for business on that date), and allows me enough time to complete all of the trials. Typically, the trading date is in 7 to 10 days from when I start this whole process.

2. Set up of the trials

I have the computer program automatically set up 20 to 100 trials. Each 'trial' is 2 photographs that are randomly chossen by the program from a database of photo URLs. These images are from a number of different libraries and are generated by another program that I wrote that takes random words from a dictionary and collects images from the internet using search engines from google, Flickr, and various stock photography web sites. The computer application then randomly assigns "BUY" or "SELL" to each image in each set for each trial. The computer application does not allow me to see what the "BUY" or "SELL" association is - that is always kept HIDDEN. This is an important control because if I did know which image was "BUY" or "SELL" then I would be able to have some conscious input on my trading decision as I compared my sketch to both images (Even though, most times, I don't even know what market I am trading). The number of trials that I create for each trade depends on how accurate I want to be with my prediction, and how much time I have available between the set up date and the trade date. Recently, the number of trials has been from 50 to 80.

3. The random thinking process.

I will take from 3 to 10 days to work my way through all 50 to 80 trials. Typically for each trial the process goes like this: I sit in a comfortable chair with noise blocking headphones on, and a note pad in hand. I close my eyes, and try to imagine myself sitting in front of my computer screen on the day of the trade, at a time after the market has closed and my trade has either been profitable or not. I imagine looking at my computer screen, and imagine what the photograph for "Trial # 1" would look like. I draw, write, sketch what ever comes to mind on one sheet of my note pad with the title "Trial # 1". As I said in the video, I'm just a random idea generator.

I repeat this process multiple times per day for 3 to 10 days until I have completed generating random thoughts for all trials in the trade.

4. The sketch comparison process

When I have completed 'random thinking' from 6 to 10 trials, I will compare my sketch for each trial to the two images that were set up for that trial. I use my computer program to do this. I see 2 images, side by side, and compare my sketch to them. I select either the image on the right, or the image on the left depending on which one I thing more closely resembles my sketch. The program randomly displays one image on the right and one on the left and this changes each time I open the image set to avoid any right/left subconscious preference. The "BUY" or "SELL" associations are KEPT hidden, and are also randomly assigned. There is no way I could know which image is connected to which association, and that control is VERY important because if I happened to know what market was being traded, and also knew which image was associated to up, and down, then I would be able to override the sketch comparison, and use my knowledge of fundamental information for that market, and have a predisposition to choose the image that was associated to that opinion.

I make the selection by clicking a radio button, then assign that selection a confidence score from 1 to 4. I assign a score of 1 if neither image resembles my sketch. I assign a 4 if I am confident that the similarities between one of the images and my drawing is not due to chance (rare).

5. determining consensus

After all the trials have been mediated on, and the sketch comparison process has been completed, my computer app ADDS all of the scores that were assigned to the "Buy" association and "Sell" association, then considers the difference. If the difference in the sums is greater than a predetermined threshold value (about 54% of the trials should confirm one prediction), then I initiate the trade in the direction of the association with the highest sum.

6. Placing the order for the trade

As part of my application, I wrote an API that connects to my brokers order entry system and submits my order. So basically, my program will decide if there is a strong enough consensus, and automatically place the order entry, and order exit for me without my knowledge of the market or direction. Most of the time, the first time I learn about what market I just traded and what direction I went (long or short), is AFTER the trade has been closed. This is not always the case due to technical reasons.

7. Viewing feedback

To close the loop, the last step is to view each image from each set that was associated to the ACTUAL outcome. This is the point where, when looking at an image on my screen, I would have the opportunity to influence the outdone of my random thoughts from a week or two ago to resemble the image that I am now looking at.

8. Statistics

My application also will calculate the statistics for me including export plots, histograms, generate Monet Carlo simulations, etc. I have learned a lot over the years about statistical analysis, and have had a few very highly educated and experienced mentors over the years.

I'm currently sitting on the deck of our hotel room in Santa Cruz enroute to LA from Sanfrancisco with Helen by bicycle, and I don't have access to my database to generate some current stats for you. But to summarize, as I indicated in the video, my success rate for trades which are a consensus of individual trials is about 75% over 100's of trades, my Z score is somewhere around 4 standard deviations from chance expectation. The individual trials are 54% correct, and that is a Z score of 5 standard deviations from chance. as I said in the video, that converts to odds against chance of 3.5 million to 1.

Since I am not aware of the market being traded, nor am I aware of the direct of the trade (buy or sell), according to commonly accepted physics models, I should be at 50% success rate for both the trades and the individual trials because my predictions (buy or sell) would be just random (assuming that the mentation process is nonsense). This is so far from being chance (4 to 5 deviations), that this should cause you to consider that perhaps there is really something that current physics understanding can't explain. Unless you think I'm lying - which, if you do, then there is really nothing more I can say.

9. External factors

There are correlations between my effect size and solar wind speed, lunar phase, and other external causal factors - I won't get into that unless you are specifically interested. Again, if you would like to see some plots, let me know, and I'll generate them for you when I get back.

Questions and conversation welcome!

Cheers,
Greg Kolodziejzyk

The idea to run this crazy race which is around a 400 meter indoor track in Ottawa resulted from the San Francisco One Day ultra being cancelled at the last minute. Helen and I had spend the entire summer training to get ready for for the SF1D. I did the race last year and finished with a total of 101 miles which was my first 100 mile ultra. I loved the race so much that I talked Helen into doing the 12 hour race this year. It was Friday night, our bags were packed, and we had checked in for our WestJet flight when an alarming email popped into my inbox. "Due to an emergency situation, we regret to inform you that the San Francisco One Day race has been cancelled". No phone call, just one email and an update on their Facebook page.

Huh!?!?!?

I quickly started to search for another race and found the Self-transcendence 24 hour ultra marathon in Ottawa for the following weekend.  The only issue I had was that rather than running around a picturesque 1 mile gravel trail with views of the Golden Gate Bridge, the race route was around a 400 meter indoor race track. Ouch. Unfortunately, Helen had other commitments, so I would be on my own. I felt ready to go for 100 miles again, and didn't want to waste all the training, so I thought I would suck it up, and make an attempt to transcend myself.

The start horn blasted off at 8:00 am sharp on Saturday morning in Ottawa's Louis Riel dome. 29 runners registered for the 24 hour race started to slowly jog around the 400 meter rubber floored oval.  Most runners had set up camps in the inner area complete with tents, comfy lawn chairs, inflatable beds, and tables fully stocked with various nutritional goodies and favorite electrolyte drinks. My 'camp' consisted of a small duffel bag with a towel and a bag of cookies from Helen. And one mouse which got into the bag of cookies.

Before the start, we were instructed to visit the officials table and meet our lap counter. Each runner is assigned one of about a dozen volunteers who's job it is to count your laps. My counter's name was Assa Ashaminga (I'm guessing at the second part of her name because I couldn't even pronounce it). Each runners race number is printed on a brightly colored background that corresponds to your lap counter. The lap counters sat behind a long table at the side of the track, and as I started to make my laps, I noticed that all the other lap counters had strange names as well. The names on the name tags were like: Ashtanga, or Notogo, or Boijayanti

And the other volunteers who were working in the kitchen cooking our vegetarian snacks, and those manning the aid station table also had Sanskrit sounding names. And although they all looked like pretty typical  Canadians from Ottawa, the girls wore long skirts and pony tails, no makeup, and the jobs were clearly split between the men and the women.

Lining the inside of the track, every 30 feet or so were inspiring motivational quotes by some dude called "Sri Chinmoy". I had seen pictures of this bald guru looking guy on the web site and I figured that maybe he was some famous Olympic runner or something. "If we believe In our own Self-transcendence-task Then there can be No unreachable goal."

Finally, at around 2 hours, I asked one of the runners who had done this race last year what was up with the volunteers - "What's with the long skirts, funny names and the harps and flutes?. Are they a local Bhudist group or something?" She looked at me and laughed, then said "NO... Don't you know? It's the Sri cult!"

The Sri cult? "Yes, it's a cult based out of new York. They run all these ultra marathons around the world from the Self-transcendence 24 hour races to a 6 day ultra marathon around a city block in Queens. They believe that one of the paths to self-transcendence and enlightenment is through ultra running. The guy Sri Chnmoy was their guru."

"Really? You must be kidding me." I said. She told me that 3 of the runners were actually members of the cult who had traveled from New York to run their first ultras.

Cult status not withstanding, I was VERY impressed with the volunteers and organizers. They really seemed to CARE so much about the job they were doing. Very peaceful, gracious, happy people - always smiling and eager to help. And they seemed to care very deeply for the runners - which is kind of a nice feeling. I thanked my counter after the race was over and he told me that it was an ultramarathon for them as well. They feel that there is a partnership between the runner and his/her counter. Both cross the finish line and both achieve that success.

There was a large leader board which the volunteers kept updated track side across from the counter tables. The board displayed the names and distances in kilometers for the top 10 runners for men and women. After the first couple of hours, I noted that my name wasn't even on the list, so I thought that maybe I should pick up my pace a bit.

So I started to run what I would classify as my normal training speed which is maybe 10 km/hr - pretty fast for a 24 hour race. I was feeling very good and I know from experience that during an ultra, when you feel good, you have to take advantage of it and "make hay while the sun shines". I knew that I would be feeling like crap soon enough, and would be walking as a result. I wanted to take advantage of the good times, and post some miles up on that board.

After the first marathon, I was on the board, covering about 40 km in around 4 to 4.5 hours. I was still feeling great, so kept the pace going. I was passing a lot of runners and moving up the board fast. By 8.5 hours in, I had covered the distance of 2 marathons and I was trading 3rd and 4th place with a runner from Quebec named Guy. Jeff, who was in first place, was miles and miles ahead of everyone. The second place guy was my camping neighbor Patrick who had just finished a 100 mile ultramarathon 2 weeks ago. He was fast, but I noticed that he was starting to walk a bit. I asked him what was up and he told me that he was starting to have stomach issues.

I kept powering on and by the time I had logged 100 km, I was in second place - passing both Guy and Patrick. Later I saw Guy reclining in his lawn chair drinking a beer, so I correctly guessed that he quit. Patrick tried to sleep off his GI problems.

I slowed down a bit for the next 20 km, and then the wheels fell off. Patrick came back on the scene and resumed his blazing pace, and knocked me out of 2nd place. I started to feel sick, and my quads were cramping, so I walked for a while. The other runners started to come alive, as I started to wither, and for the next 10 hours, I watched my name slowly drop down on the leader board.

To help pass the time, and to learn more about this strange religion, I tracked down one of the Sri Chinmoy runners from New York and had a little chat. She was young - I thought late 20's, and she was running her first ultra. She was in way over her head, but she did end up completing 94 km. She walked between episodes of sitting in a chair being attended to and massaged by her Sri sisters. I asked her if her church makes them run and she said no, but it is highly encouraged. She told me her goal one day was to run the 6 day ultra. She didn't train for this event. She starts each morning with 30 minutes of meditation while focusing on a photo of her guru Sri Chinmoy. They don't drink alcohol or caffeine, don't dance, don't watch tv or read newspapers, and avoid social contact with members of the opposite sex. Sexual relations are forbidden, even for married couples. This is according to the book Cartwheels in a Sari written by a Jayanti Tamm who defected from the cult and published a book which I am reading now.

I was feeling so crappy I wanted to pack up and head back to the hotel. But... I made a deal with myself. That deal was that I would NOT quit. No matter what. I would run if I could, walk if running wasn't possible, sit if walking wasn't possible, or curl up in a corner and sleep if sitting wasn't possible. And I did them all. I have vivid memories of lying on an old crash pad in the corner of the dome shivering. When moving in the dome, you get warm and perspire, but when you stop and your body is so depleted, it doesn't have the energy to keep your body heat up so you freeze. I am lying on the dusty floor with my eyes closed, fading in and out of a half-sleep, shivering because I didn't have a sleeping bag or blanket. All because it is the least horrible thing that I could be doing. Running was making me cramp, walking making me sick, I didn't have enough energy to sit in a chair, and I was not allowed to go back to the hotel - as per my self-imposed rule.

The self transcendence motivational signs must have gotten to me. I was bound and determined to transcend this! I didn't quit and ended up rotating between a slow walk resembling a drunken stupor and crawling into some corner. But, self-transcending am I. 8:00 am finally arrived with cheers and clapping from the Sri  volunteers as we all crossed the finish line.

In the end, I am very happy that I endured this race. I felt like a king for the first 12 hours, and even though I crashed hard for the second half, I am proud of myself for sticking it through and not giving up. The juxtaposition between the privileged life I live and the primitive crudeness of running an event like this, helps keep me real and grounded. I think everyone should do something really difficult - something that really causes you to stretch and grow and find what you are made of - at least once a year. It will put your wonderful life into proper perspective. And maybe, if you are lucky, you will transcend yourself.

(download)

Click here to download:

Self-transcendence_24_hour_ult.zip (15.74 MB)

WiTHiN attracts a TON of attention and I love it. I really like talking to people about the boat and all the cool technology we have set up in here. Everyone wants to know all about it and its a great way to meet people.

We will get up early tomorrow and head across the channel back to Ucluelet before the afternoon winds pick up.

Greg

-----------------------------
To send an email directly to Greg on WiTHiN,
reply to this email or mailto:pedaltheocean@spsmail.net

To view or comment on this message:
http://www.adventuresofgreg.com/blog

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(download)

Click here to download:

Sea_trials_Day_5_report.zip (80 KB)

WiTHiN attracts a TON of attention and I love it. I really like talking to people about the boat and all the cool technology we have set up in here. Everyone wants to know all about it and its a great way to meet people.

We will get up early tomorrow and head across the channel back to Ucluelet before the afternoon winds pick up.

Greg

-----------------------------
To send an email directly to Greg on WiTHiN, reply to this email or mailto:pedaltheocean@spsmail.net

To view or comment on this message:
http://www.adventuresofgreg.com/blog

To view a tracking map showing Greg's current location:
http://www.pedaltheocean.com/follow-greg.php

To donate $50 to buy a child a bicycle:
http://www.pedaltheocean.com/charity.php

(download)

Click here to download:

Sea_trials_Day_5_report.zip (80 KB)

We will tour around the islands tomorrow - I think I would like to head back to Effingham to get some photos of the whales if they make a repeat performance.

This "quasie (sp?) stationary ridge of high pressure"" is still causing lots of wind for the next few days, but it seems to be calm in the early morning, so that is when I'll plan the return trip across the channel.

Greg

-----------------------------
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(download)

Click here to download:

Sea_trials_day_4_report.zip (74 KB)

I spent yesterday morning pedaling WiTHiN up and down the Ucluelet inlet and spending as much time in the building seas and wind outside the protection of the inlet as possible. When the winds picked up substantially, I headed back to our dock, and Clive and I went sailing instead. I didn't like it at all and frankly would rather have been in WiTHiN than Theodora. Clive is a very competent sailer and Theodora is a really capable little offshore yacht. I just really felt out of my element. I wouldn't have enjoyed it much better in WiTHiN, but at least I am accustomed to her, and I am in charge.

Seas at the time of our sail were probably only 2.5 to 3 meters and the wind was picking up to 25 knots. For most offshore sailers this would be classified as GREAT sailing weather, but for this land lubber, a most frightening experience.

It was then that I realized that maybe I'm just not cut out for this kind of thing. Excitement to me is cycling a human powered vehicle around a 1/4 mile race track for 24 hours non-stop. Or trail running for 5 hours. I know - danger is my middle name - right?

We headed back to our dock and went for a hike. I attached a shot of the sea taken from our hike during the gale that afternoon.

This morning after an awesome sleep in the cozy cabin of WiTHiN, I checked the forecast which was still warning of more gale force winds for southern Vancouver Island West. So, I spent the entire day tooling up and down the inlet and into the 1.5 to 2 meter swells. The sun was shining, it was warm and CALM and the winds never did pick up at all.

The forecast is calling for some calmer weather tomorrow morning, so Clive and I are thinking about getting up early and headling out to the Broken Island chain which is right next door - about 3 or 4 hour pedal away from here. BI is an amazing place - I have kayaked there with my family and friends a couple of times. I think we will spend a day or two exploring the islands, then head back across the channel to Ucee and pack up. Clive is sailing on to Alaska. He is the true adventurer here.

I'm really enjoying this despite my realization that this whole ocean crossing dream just might not be for me. The west coast of Vancouver Island is amazingly beautiful and there is no better way of seeing it - no better way of EXPERIENCING it - than through the windows of the worlds coolest human powered boat. I do not regret spending a single penny or minute of work building WiTHiN, for she has shown me parts of this world few get to see. As I type this in my cabin, WiTHiN is rocking back and forth and a harbour seal has popped his head up to check me out. When I was in my immersion suit under the water yesterday removing the T rudder addition, a bright pink jelly fish floated right in front of my face. The trip up the inside passage with Bryon was absolutely incredible - long days turning the pedals, orcas, currents - breathtaking scenery. Fighting the storm force winds on OK lake while traveling over 200 km in 4 days under my own power was also pretty darned cool. So many
amazing moments - made 200% better by being able to share it with you. Thank you for that!

This adventure isn't over though. I hope to send another report tomorrow from the beautiful broken islands.

Greg

-----------------------------
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(download)

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Sea_trials_day_3_report.zip (121 KB)

The weather forecast is calling for a gale this afternoon, tomorrow and Tuesday with seas in the 2 to 3 meter range. This is supposed to be summer with winds peaking at 15 knots and seas at 1 to 2 meters - that is what I signed up for! Frustrating.

Clive and I have decided to take it slow and ease into things as the weather allows. I'm out here for more than a week, so I have plenty o time to gradually build up to some overnights out at sea which is really the focus of this trip.

I am tied up to Theodora right now and had an awesome sleep last night. The gentle rocking knocked me out and I am getting very comfortable in WiTHiN's sleeping cabin. Very cozy. Today we leave the marina at Ucluelet and we are going to the Broken Island chain of islands. We will find a nice anchorage and I'll raft up to Theodora for the night. Then on Tuesday, we will spend the day touring the islands. If the weather forecast improves, perhaps we will head to sea on Wednesday or Thursday.

After we launched WiTHiN yesterday, I spent a few hours and pedaled out to the channel leading out to the Pacific past the entrance to the Ucluelet inlet. The water was fine - a bit bumpy with a small 3 feet swell - nothing compared to what I was in during the last trip out here. Winds were between 10 to 15 knots with a gale warning in effect. The T rudder does not seem to result in the bow swinging out to follow wind, and it is slowing me down by about a full knot. I will put the immersion suit on this morning and try to remove the T wing before heading out.

You can see where I am and where the broken island chain is by ollowing me on the live tracking map:

http://www.pedaltheocean.com/follow-greg.php

Later,
Greg

-----------------------------
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To view or comment on this message:
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Greg

-----------------------------
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To view or comment on this message:
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I head to Vancouver Island tomorrow - traffic should be brutal, as it is a long weekend. I'm meeting my buddy Colin Angus for a beer in Comox, then I drive to Ucluelet on Saturday morning to meet up with Clive and Theodora. Unfortunately high tide is required to launch WiTHiN, and high tide is at 5:00 am or 5:00 pm. I really wanted to take off on Sat, but I might need to wait until Sunday morning.

Cheers,
Greg

-----------------------------
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Clive and I are due to depart from Ucluelet on July 4th. The goal is to spend 10 days out to sea heading west - possibly in search of the Pacific high which in July, is typically found a few hundred miles west of Vancouver Island. I will pedal WiTHiN and Clive will sail the escort boat Theodora. Typical summer weather conditions in the north Pacific are good with the chance of a gale or storm low, so I am really hoping that I will be able spend the entire trip in WiTHiN. The advantage to going out with Clive, is that if conditions get dicey, or our recent modifications aren't working out as planned, I will always have the option of getting a tow and climbing aboard Theodora. And we will be far away from any land which has been my highest area of risk with recent sea trials.

As you may recall, a couple of my largest concerns resulting from my previous 2 sea trials - the first off shore in Ucluelet where I was knocked down my a strong wind gust and lost control, and getting caught in a wind storm on OK lake where I got a chance to really appreciate the danger of standing up through the open hatch to deploy a sea anchor or parachute.

We hope that two new modifications will resolve these issues:

1. Auto-drogue - This is a 10" aluminum disc which will act as the drogue. It is attached to a 150 foot 1/4 inch thick cord which runs from the stern, through a small sleeve in the hull into the cockpit where it is reeled up with a trailer winch. I will be able to deploy the drogue with up to 150 feet of line all from the comfort and safety of my seat - and reel it all back in again. If this works, then it will be a really easy way to sit-out adverse wind conditions because the disk will provide enough drag to keep my bow pointed into the oncoming waves and wind.

2. T-rudder - The T rudder is basically a horizontal wing that has been added to the bottom of the rudder. When wind blows abeam and rolls WiTHiN, the underwater surface area astern will increase as the horizontal 'T' wing rotates to vertical. This will increase resistance under water and allow the bow to be pushed down wind. That's the theory, and I am anxious to see how this works in the real world.

Photos are shown below.

(download)

Click here to download:

Auto-drogue_T-rudder.zip (1.49 MB)